In preparation for a possible 2026 sales tax ballot measure, local transit officials have launched a comprehensive analysis of how they would spend millions in new revenue enhancing bus and trolley service.
The analysis will also consider a more bleak scenario in which no new revenue is secured and local transit service must be slashed to help close future projected budget deficits of more than $120 million a year.
The decision to thoroughly evaluate operations so they can be right-sized based on revenue comes as the Metropolitan Transit System is at a crucial crossroads.
Just as local transit has begun to attract more riders — including higher-income riders who aren’t dependent on transit to get around — the transit system is facing a budget crisis that threatens that progress.
The MTS board may try to solve the problem by placing a half-cent sales tax increase on the November 2026 ballot.
Based on a similar measure considered and then abandoned in 2020, the measure could raise in the neighborhood of $250 million a year in revenue that would erase the projected deficits and allow service upgrades.
The sales tax measure would be limited to areas served by MTS, so North County communities would be excluded because they are served by the North County Transit District.
The measure would differ from a recent, unsuccessful attempt to raise the countywide TransNet sales tax surcharge. TransNet money pays for both transit and road projects, but the MTS sales tax revenue measure would only fund transit.
A key part of preparing for the possible MTS ballot measure is determining what the money would be spent on, officials said.
In addition to more bus routes and more frequent service at existing bus stops and trolley stations, the money could help fund a trolley connection to the airport or the proposed Purple Line trolley expansion along Interstate 805.
The MTS board agreed last month to pay $682,000 to Transportation Management & Design, a Carlsbad-based consulting firm focused on transit optimization projects, to determine how service would be enhanced.
The consultants have been told to gear up for a scenario where MTS has $75 million more annually to spend on transit service — roughly what is expected to remain after the projected deficits are erased.
That could help with a marketing campaign in of the ballot measure.
“People are going to vote on this, and there (have) to be things worthwhile for them to vote on,” said Russ Chisholm of the consulting firm.
But the consultants have also been asked to anticipate a scenario where the measure fails or doesn’t even go on the ballot. That scenario would require roughly $30 million to $50 million in service cuts.
The cuts wouldn’t need to cover the entire $120 million in projected future annual deficits, because MTS officials plan to close the gaps partly with a fare hike and cuts in spending on infrastructure and equipment.
The cuts could include the elimination of bus routes that get relatively little use and less frequent service on some popular routes. Trolley lines where trains are now scheduled to arrive every 15 minutes could be scaled back to 30-minute headways.
This will be the first time MTS has done a comprehensive evaluation of its service since 2017, three years before the COVID-19 pandemic began dramatically to change travel patterns and commuting and four years before the opening of the trolley’s Blue Line extension.
“There’s been a lot of changes in demographics and land use since COVID, so we want to look at that,” said Brent Boyd, MTS director of planning and scheduling.
Sharon Cooney, MTS’ chief executive, said the goal is finding the optimal transit network for whatever revenue stream the agency will have in the future.
She said the target amounts for adds — $75 million — and for cuts — $30 million to $50 million — could be adjusted during the analysis when more information emerges about the ballot measure and the MTS budget.
The budget adopted by the MTS board for the new fiscal year that starts July 1 closes potential deficits with $62 million in reserves and $22 million in short-term state assistance scheduled to end in fiscal year 2028.
MTS is projected to face annual deficits of $120 million in fiscal year 2029 and $145 million in fiscal year 2030.
Melissa Sather, another member of the consulting team, said it’s time for a follow-up to the comprehensive analysis conducted in 2017.
“We know a lot’s changed over the last decade,” she said, listing a primary goal as “making sure that the routes that are out there are responding to how people are traveling today.”
The analysis will also recommend changes in routes and timing that aim to more seamlessly connect MTS service to new bicycle lanes and other mass transit in the region, such as the Coaster commuter rail line.
The consultants plan to study adding service before they study taking it away. They are scheduled to complete the scenario where $75 million in service is added by next winter, while they aren’t scheduled to complete the scenario where service is cut until fall 2026.
